The Lowdown on the Canucks Playoff Implications (updated)

The Canucks appear to be in good shape to get into the Stanley Cup Playoffs this year after missing last year.  With 5 games to go in the regular season, the Canucks hold down 2nd place in the Pacific Division and sit 4 points up on 3rd place Calgary and 7 points clear of the 4th place Los Angeles Kings.
The Canucks currently hold the 1st tie-breaker (ROWs) on both of those teams.


The remaining schedule for Vancouver looks like this:

@Nashville (WIN 5-4 in shootout)
@Chicago
@Winnipeg
Los Angeles
Arizona
Edmonton

Compared to Calgary and LA, the Canucks have the toughest remaining schedule
based on their opponents record.  LA has the weakest opponents strength remaining schedule:

Edmonton
Colorado
@Vancouver
@Edmonton
@Calgary
San Jose

Calgary's schedule looks like this:

@St. Louis
@Edmonton
Arizona
Los Angeles
@Winnipeg

Winnipeg also factors in to the Canucks' playoff chase.  They have 90 points and hold the final Western Conference Wildcard spot and have 5 games to go against:

Vancouver
@Minnesota
@St. Louis
@Colorado
Calgary

So, if these 3 teams go on a run, it is conceivable that the Canucks could miss the playoffs with as many as 99 points.  Yes.  99 points.  Imagine missing the playoffs with 99 points!

There exists a scenario, though highly unlikely, that could play out if the Canucks falter and the other 3 teams basically win out.

This is how it shakes down.

Vancouver loses in regulation to the Los Angeles Kings (could easily happen) and fails to pick up at least 5 points against Chicago, Winnipeg, Arizona, and Edmonton.  Even if you 'gimme' the 4 points against Arizona and Edmonton (which is a BIG gimme seeing how the Canucks have fared against the NHL bottom feeders of late), the Canucks, in this scenario would still need to find at least a point in road games against Chicago and Winnipeg.

Calgary beats St. Louis, Edmonton, Arizona and loses to Winnipeg and LA in overtime or the shootout. Giving them 99 points.

LA wins out over Edmonton (X2), Colorado, and San Jose.  Would you bet against the defending Stanley Cup champs? Giving them 100 points.

Winnipeg beats Vancouver (in regulation) Minnesota, St. Louis, and Colorado, and beats Calgary in overtime or shootout. Giving them 100 points.

In this (highly unlikely, but still mathematically possible scenario), LA would finish 2nd in the Pacific Division, the Jets would nail down the last wild card and the Canucks and Calgary would finish TIED for 3rd in the Pacific.  The 1st tie-breaker would be ROW (regulation/overime wins). The Canucks currently hold an edge over the Flames 40-38.  Depending how the last 5 games shake down for each team, the Flames could potentially pass the Canucks in ROW and remain tied in points.  They could also be tied in ROW which would trigger the second tie-breaker.  The second tie-breaker (Points in Head-to-Head Games) is owned by the Calgary Flames.
So, though unlikely, the Canucks still could miss the playoffs with as many as 99 points!


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